TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

Well hello (again),

Happy Monday from a very cold Sydney.

Before we dive in, wishing you a wonderful week ahead.

With love,
Charbel
Velvet Onion & Friends

• Product: Smart products are often grey

• Founding: Pre-traction: why and how to prove demand before revenue

• Design: 10 commandments for UI design from Apple’s interface hero

• Science & Tech: Slowly but surely, we are beating cancer

• AI: OpenAI’s newest brainiac

• For Young Founders: Understanding who you’re building for

• Quote for the day: - Moral responsibility: yours and mine

Smart products are often grey

Creating “intelligent products” means building with both logic and likelihood in mind. Not just code that follows orders.

Marty Cagan reflects on how AI’s roots in rule based expert systems gave way to today’s probability-driven models, which better mimic real world decision making.

Whether it’s autonomous cars or personalised playlists, smart products rely on guessing well and improving fast.

The real challenge for product teams is not AGI.

It is weaving probabilistic thinking into mission-critical tools without compromising reliability.

Why this matters: 

80% accuracy in a man’s predictions would earn him a tag of intelligence.

Then why not adapt to this sort of occasional imperfection when building brainy products?

READ MORE →

MORE PRODUCT NEWS

• The smartest cure for chaotic teams

• AI startups print cash while SaaS rolls eyes

• Build AI agents that don’t lose the plot

• Design it such that users never screw it up

Pre-traction: why and how to prove demand before revenue

Sales is not the only depiction of traction.

At the messy pre-seed stage, before real revenue or polished product, signals are traction.

Investors like those at Redbud back founders who show early proof points:

• A waitlist of users,

• design partners on deck or

• insights grounded in lived pain

Even tiny wins like a warm pipeline or consistent user feedback hint that something’s clicking.

What counts is a founder’s ability to articulate demand, track timelines to monetisation, and iterate with urgency.

Why a big deal?

Pre-traction builds investor confidence not through hype but through scrappy, focused progress.

Show that people are already leaning in, not just that you’re building fast.

READ MORE →

MORE STARTUP & FOUNDING NEWS

• VCs are doing PE moves, just with less debt and more AI here and there

• Stamp their card before they even start: we obsess over finishing unfinished streaks

• ARR < GAAP and here’s why

• Startup culture docs: vibes honeycoated as values

10 commandments for UI design from Apple’s interface hero

Every pixel you push in Figma owes a quiet thank-you to Bill Atkinson, the neurobiology grad turned Apple software genius.

From inventing QuickDraw and HyperCard to baking in the double-click and drag-and-drop, he made computers delightful.

Atkinson’s 10 rules are few of designers’ favorites to live by. Here’s a simplified list of his lessons:

1. Design within constraints

2. Build tools that democratise creativity

3. Make interfaces feel inevitable

4. Question the “obvious” solutions

5. Optimise for delight, not just function

6. Engineer with the end experience in mind

7. Hide complexity behind simplicity

8. Code for human perception

9. Build tools that teach by doing

10. Create platforms, not just products

If you’re thinking to learn more about his methods surrounding these 10 pointers, go here.

MORE DESIGN NEWS

• Too busy to grow? Experiment anyway

• Apple’s Liquid Glass UI: sheen and lean

• Getty vs Stability: UK court takes on the AI art heist

• Apple skips the AI hype and polishes what it’s already best at (isn’t it what we all should do?)

Slowly but surely, we are beating cancer  

For decades, cancer was a death knell.

Now, it's increasingly just a chronic condition, thanks to a trio of medical game changers.

First came public health wins like anti smoking campaigns and the HPV jab, slashing risk before it starts.

Then, early detection surged, with colonoscopies and futuristic AI screenings catching cancer early, often before symptoms show up.

Finally, breakthrough treatments like CAR-T therapy turned the patient’s own immune cells into assassins, wiping out cancers once considered terminal.

Why is this a big deal?

We all know, don’t we?

READ MORE ABOUT IT→

MORE SCIENCE & TECH NEWS

• Nuclear 2.0: compact, meltdown-proof, and Tennessee-made

• Stretchy brain tech lets scientists peek inside baby minds

• See. This is how the sun’s chilly south pole looks

• And this window drinks the desert air and pours you water

OpenAI’s newest brainiac

OpenAI just gave its cleverest AI, o3, a serious upgrade. o3-pro.

It’s now rolling out to ChatGPT Pro and Teams.

This version doesn’t just think. It reasons, tackles maths, codes, writes, and even explains things like a patient tutor on a caffeine drip.

It’s priced steep, but reviewers say it aces clarity, depth, and brainy benchmarks, even outscoring Google's and Anthropic’s finest.

You won’t get images or Canvas access yet, and it’s a bit slower. But that’s the price of brilliance.

READ MORE →

MORE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE NEWS

• Hollywood sues Midjourney: more of the same battles

• Dia browser reads your tabs and maybe your mind

• Meta's AI learns physics so your robot can dodge cats

• Claude gets plugin powers and now talks to your tools

Card # 12. Best & Worst Outcome Scenario

What this is:

This exercise forces teams to define both the ideal future and the worst-case scenario for their product. By visualising these extremes, teams can prepare for risks, set realistic goals, and identify key factors that influence success or failure.

A best-case scenario outlines what success looks like - what happens if everything goes right?

A worst-case scenario anticipates failure points - what could go wrong, and how can we prevent it?

Why do this?

• Prepares teams for uncertainty. No business operates in a vacuum - competition, economic shifts, and user behaviour changes can all impact success.

• Encourages risk mitigation. Identifying worst-case scenarios before they happen helps businesses develop contingency plans.

• Sets realistic expectations. Teams and investors need to understand that growth takes time and isn’t always linear.

• Helps define key success drivers. By identifying what would make a best-case scenario possible, teams can prioritise the right actions.

Examples in action:

• Best-Case Scenario:

  • The product goes viral, gaining traction through word-of-mouth.

  • Achieves Series A funding, allowing for team expansion and scaling.

  • Becomes an industry leader, setting new standards in its category.

• Worst-Case Scenario:

  • No customer traction - users don’t adopt the product as expected.

  • Burn rate too high - spending outweighs revenue, leading to financial instability.

  • Market shifts or regulatory changes make the business model unviable.

  • Competitor dominance - another company with more resources outpaces innovation.

• Case Study:

  • Instagram (Best Case Realised): Initially a check-in app (Burbn), Instagram pivoted to focus on photo sharing, leading to explosive growth and acquisition by Facebook.

  • Quibi (Worst Case Realised): Raised $1.75B in funding, but misunderstood the market, leading to no user adoption and an abrupt shutdown within six months.

A smart company plans for the worst while executing for the best.

Quick exercise:

1. List three risks that could negatively impact your project.

2. For each risk, define one mitigation strategy to reduce the chance of failure.

What key success drivers must be in place for your best-case scenario to happen?

FROM THE GET SHIP DONE INNOVATION KIT (COMING SOON) →

I HOPE YOU ENJOYED TODAY’S NEWSLETTER

Until next time,

With love,
Charbel

From Velvet Onion & Friends,
The House of Better